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I've been reviewing the US and Canadian reportage on the 6th Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba. And it get's worse the further one is from Miami.
Here's an example
They (the media) are talking about more opportunities, leadership transition, right to sell homes and cars, free markets, some are even saying that the ration books  are being eliminated and bringing in young people.
What all these stories miss is that every single change that is being committed to has one collective purpose; to sustain the status quo.
The Castros haven't gone soft, but they know that their economy is a disaster and that the only thing that keeps millions of people from starving is the black market (which of course doesn't pay taxes to sustain the bureaucracy and politburo). People haven't lived on their "public-sector" jobs since at least 1994 - every family has survived on the black market and the pittance they have gotten paid is of no account. So they are making changes to reduce the money they waste in feeding people with ration books and to dip their beak into the work that people do on the side to actually feed themselves.
Here are some of the big truths:
THEY ARE NOT CREATING PRIVATE JOBS
They are cutting payroll. People that now are getting a stipend will no longer get one. But this is no big deal because no one lived on their stipend anyway, but on their black market activity. NOW their black market activity will be reported on and taxed. 
Generating entrepreneurism? In the form we know this, where someone puts a sign up and sells bobble-head Blue Jays or cuts hair - is impossible in Cuba. There are no customers, no one has extra money.
The government will do what they have done with Casas and Paladares - heavily tax them. 
The good news is that, by being fired from their jobs, Cubans will have another 40 hours/week to hustle, buy/sell/trade (but most likely 100% of this extra income will be taxed).
THE OLD FARTS WILL NOT GO QUIETLY
Cuba is run by 80 year olds and will continue to be run by 80 year olds. As evidence, the Castros' appointment of 80 year old Jose Ramon Machado as Raul's successor. (Lest we forget, they had a couple of terrific young guys in Felipe Perez Rogue and Carlos Lage - but they were deemed not communist enough and were fired).
RIGHT TO SELL HOMES AND CARS
People have traditionally earned the right to buy cars through exceptional service to the Revolucion - maybe shooting peasants in Angola. And, on return to Cuba, they have sold or rented these cars to people who can afford them - illegal taxis. People who have nice assigned homes are known to rent them out to people with more money. So long as the CDR doesn't find out it's cool.
TERM LIMITS
Raul and Jose Ramon both get another ten years. They will be ninety. Will they remember that their terms are up?
MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BLACKS, INDIO/SPANISH, WOMEN
Sure. The Spanish in Cuba have been enormously fair in promoting equality to all. But, as in the farm yard, pigs are more equal than others. we will see blacks given equal opportunity in getting tourist jobs, and real incomes, when pigs fly.

Cuba is one big lie. Old people lie because they have always had to to survive. Young people lie because it's the only thing they know. It will not be different as long as a single person over sixty, who grew up with Fidel, is in a position of control.
 
 

People seem to believe what Raul Castro is saying about making nice with the USA. After all, he's the kinder, gentler one given to promises of a cell phone in every pocket if not a chicken in every pot.  Certainly the prospect that he and Obama will be bosum buddies and Cubans will be watching Survival instead of living it is an attractive one.
But even with a sincere desire by both camps to cozy up, what are the prospects of a Cuba that feeds, houses and protects Cubans to a western standard?
In prospecting a prosperous future for all Cubans, the only thing that matters is its relationship with the USA.
Cuba has not been isolated from the world for the last fifty years, just from the USA for the last forty seven.  
They’ve had more or less free market access from and to  Russia, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Spain and everyone else. Yet these exporters of tremendous economic opportunity haven’t had all that much positive effect on the standard of living for Cubans.
So really, all the happy prospects of a better future for Cubans hinge on the USA.
And unhappily,  I have to suggest that everyone hold on to their mojitos.
If tomorrow morning. Fidel and Raul along with Ricardo, Felipe and Carlos and the entire employment complement of the Capitolo hopped on a seaworthy 58 Chevy and sailed across the Caribbean to find sanctuary with Hugo in Venezuela, nothing would happen to improve the lot of Cubans for a decade - maybe a generation.
And it’s not because there aren’t a lot of people (including this one) who really, really want Cubans to prosper. It’s just reality.
The primary reasons that Cuba will take a while to be “reconstructed” all have two legs. When a change comes current leaders can be expected to priorize milking the opportunity for all it’s worth above what’s good for the people.  Ask anyone who has done business with this crew. Their idea of a deal is that you invest the capital, you pay the costs and them a commission and they keep the profit. They’re so crooked that when they die they’ll be screwed into the ground, not buried. Plus, they don’t pay their bills.
The next big reason that things won’t be turned around quickly is that there is almost no way to do it. Infrastructure that developed countries take for granted: electricity, water, refrigeration, roads, construction equipment, ports to receive material, transportation and just about everything else do not exist in any form that could allow any reconstruction to take place. Figure ten years and $30 Billion to start.
A third reason is that reconstruction of an economy requires hordes of lawyers, stadia of translators, battalions of legislators and armies of diplomats and bureaucrats. All talking eternally and from all sides and all at once. It took fourteen years to design and built the Canada / USA Free Trade Agreement and those two countries are best friends and biggest trading partners! How long to do the same when a whole bunch of Florida legislators owe their jobs to anti-Fidelistas? Until they are in their graves.
I hope I haven’t depressed anyone on the eve of the fiftieth anniversary of Fidel’s glorious victory over Battista, Eisenhower and Michael Corleone . Anyone who’s bothered to read this likely has affinity for the people, if not the place and the politics and wants to see the day when they live free and live well. Me too. I just hope I’ll still be around to visit there, then.

 

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